# DelayGuard > AI-powered US domestic flight delay and cancellation risk tool. Predicts delay probability for any US domestic flight using a hybrid rule engine and machine learning model trained on 3.95 million BTS flights, with live NOAA weather and FAA advisory data. Also shows historical cancellation rates by airline, route, and departure month — sourced from BTS 2024–2025 data covering 14 million flights. ## What DelayGuard does - Estimates delay and cancellation risk for US domestic flights. Free users see a risk band (Low / Moderate / High / Very High); Premium and credits show the exact percentage and the full factor breakdown - Shows historical cancellation rate for every prediction — resolved at route × airline × departure month level - Publishes a ranked US airline cancellation rate index sourced from BTS 2024–2025 (14M flights) - Models these US airlines: American, Delta, United, Southwest, JetBlue, Alaska, Frontier, Allegiant, Sun Country, and Hawaiian (operated as part of Alaska since April 2026). Spirit Airlines ceased operations on 2 May 2026; DelayGuard keeps a historical record only and produces no Spirit predictions - Covers 22 major US airports with detailed delay risk profiles, on-time stats, and seasonal breakdowns - Supports flight predictions for 80 US airports as origin or destination - Compares airports in the same metro area head-to-head (8 comparison pages): New York, South Florida, Chicago, San Francisco Bay, Los Angeles area, Dallas, Houston, Washington-Baltimore - Provides real-time weather, FAA Ground Delay Program, and NAS congestion signals - Free to use — no account required for basic predictions ## Airport coverage Full delay guides (22 airports): https://www.delayguard.ai/airports/atl, /airports/bos, /airports/clt, /airports/den, /airports/dfw, /airports/dtw, /airports/ewr, /airports/fll, /airports/iah, /airports/jfk, /airports/las, /airports/lax, /airports/lga, /airports/mco, /airports/mia, /airports/msp, /airports/ord, /airports/phl, /airports/phx, /airports/sea, /airports/sfo, /airports/slc Each guide includes: delay rate and cancellation rate with sample size and date window, best and worst departure hours, monthly seasonality, airlines at the airport, most delayed and most reliable routes, a data-supported explanation of why the airport runs the way it does, a live FAA / weather / ground-delay module (separate from the historical figures), and FAQs. Short statistics pages (comparison partners, 10 airports): MDW, OAK, BUR, ONT, SNA, DAL, HOU, DCA, IAD, BWI at https://www.delayguard.ai/airports/{iata}. Delay definition: a flight is delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival (BTS and DOT standard). Delay window: January 2023 to December 2025. Cancellation window: 2024 to 2025. Historical BTS rates, DelayGuard model probability and live FAA / weather status are three separate things. DelayGuard covers US domestic flights only. ## Airport comparisons - https://www.delayguard.ai/compare/jfk-lga-ewr (New York) - https://www.delayguard.ai/compare/mia-fll (South Florida) - https://www.delayguard.ai/compare/ord-mdw (Chicago) - https://www.delayguard.ai/compare/sfo-oak (San Francisco Bay Area) - https://www.delayguard.ai/compare/lax-bur-sna-ont (Los Angeles area) - https://www.delayguard.ai/compare/dfw-dal (Dallas-Fort Worth) - https://www.delayguard.ai/compare/iah-hou (Houston) - https://www.delayguard.ai/compare/dca-iad-bwi (Washington-Baltimore) ## Airlines - American: https://www.delayguard.ai/airlines/american-airlines - Delta: https://www.delayguard.ai/airlines/delta-air-lines - United: https://www.delayguard.ai/airlines/united-airlines - Southwest: https://www.delayguard.ai/airlines/southwest-airlines - JetBlue: https://www.delayguard.ai/airlines/jetblue-airways - Alaska: https://www.delayguard.ai/airlines/alaska-airlines - Frontier: https://www.delayguard.ai/airlines/frontier-airlines - Allegiant: https://www.delayguard.ai/airlines/allegiant-air - Hawaiian (historical record; now operated as Alaska): https://www.delayguard.ai/airlines/hawaiian-airlines ## Seasonal guides - Summer thunderstorm delays: https://www.delayguard.ai/guides/summer-thunderstorm-delays - Northeast winter flights: https://www.delayguard.ai/guides/winter-northeast-delays - Thanksgiving and Christmas 2026: https://www.delayguard.ai/blog/thanksgiving-christmas-flight-delay-guide-2026 ## Routes 208 hub-to-hub route pages at https://www.delayguard.ai/routes/{origin}-to-{dest} (for example /routes/mia-to-jfk), each with delay rate, cancellation rate, best time to fly, day-of-week pattern, and carrier comparison. Index: https://www.delayguard.ai/routes. Routes with the highest cancellation rates: https://www.delayguard.ai/cancellation-rates/routes ## Key pages - Homepage / predictor: https://www.delayguard.ai/ - Flight delay + cancellation predictor: https://www.delayguard.ai/flight-delay-prediction - US airline cancellation rates (ranked, BTS 2024–2025): https://www.delayguard.ai/cancellation-rates - Routes with the highest cancellation rates: https://www.delayguard.ai/cancellation-rates/routes - Data (BTS delay and cancellation aggregates by airline, airport, hour, weekday and month, with CSV downloads): https://www.delayguard.ai/data - How it works: https://www.delayguard.ai/how-it-works - Airport delay data: https://www.delayguard.ai/airports - Airline delay statistics: https://www.delayguard.ai/airlines - Route delay data: https://www.delayguard.ai/routes - Blog: https://www.delayguard.ai/blog - Premium / pricing: https://www.delayguard.ai/premium ## Data sources - Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on-time performance data: 2024–2025 (14M domestic flights, 199K cancellations) for the cancellation index; January 2023 to December 2025 for airport, airline and route delay rates - NOAA Aviation Weather Center: live METARs, TAFs, PIREPs, SIGMETs - FAA: NOTAM data, Ground Delay Programs, Ground Stops - OpenWeatherMap: 5-day 3-hourly forecast - Open-Meteo: 16-day hourly forecast - AviationStack: live flight status (FlightAware fallback) ## Model - Hybrid: rule engine (65%) + XGBoost classifier v9 (35%), pre-departure features only - Trained on US domestic BTS flights from 2023 to mid-2025 (3.95M rows); tested on Oct–Dec 2025 flights it never saw (1.33M rows) - Features include: route patterns by hour/weekday/month, historical carrier/weather/NAS delay causes, airport congestion and slot control, time-of-day, seasonality ## Cancellation rate data - Source: BTS On-Time Performance dataset, 2024–2025 - Coverage: 14,080,680 scheduled US domestic departures, 199,191 cancellations - Overall US domestic cancellation rate: 1.41% - Southwest Airlines: 0.84% (lowest) - Hawaiian Airlines: 0.93% - Delta Air Lines: 1.00% - Allegiant Air: 1.06% - United Airlines: 1.22% - Alaska Airlines: 1.58% - JetBlue Airways: 1.60% - American Airlines: 1.68% - Spirit Airlines: 1.74% (ceased operations May 2, 2026) - Frontier Airlines: 2.05% (highest) - Rates resolved at route × airline × month level where sample size permits ## Accuracy - US domestic network delay rate, January 2023 to December 2025: 21.23% of operated flights arrived 15 or more minutes late (BTS, 20.9 million scheduled flights in the window) - Model covers all major US hub-to-hub routes - Live data gate: METAR/NOAA/FAA only applied within 6 hours of departure ## Contact - Website: https://www.delayguard.ai - Email: info@delayguard.ai