Hurricane Trudy and Your Puerto Vallarta or Manzanillo Flight: What a Pilot Watches This Weekend
Matt — Founder & Airline Pilot. Published October 16, 2026. Updated October 16, 2026, 11:43 CEST. 6 min read.
Hurricane Trudy rapidly strengthened into a Category 3 major hurricane overnight and is forecast to pass near the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico Saturday night into Sunday, according to the US National Hurricane Center's 3 a.m. CST advisory on October 16 (Advisory #12). It's the second storm in a week for this coast: Hurricane Simon closed Puerto Vallarta's airport on the evening of October 10, and commercial flights only resumed on October 13. Mexico's Hurricane Watch runs from north of Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, which takes in Manzanillo and ends just south of Puerto Vallarta, and a Tropical Storm Warning now covers the coast from Manzanillo southward to Zihuatanejo. If you're flying to or from Puerto Vallarta (PVR), Manzanillo (ZLO) or Zihuatanejo (ZIH) between October 17 and 19, expect possible schedule changes on both legs of your trip. (Source: NHC Advisory #12, 3 a.m. CST Oct 16.)
Short answers
- How strong is Trudy? 120 mph, Category 3, forecast to peak near 145 mph on Saturday and still be a major hurricane at its closest approach to Mexico (NHC #12).
- Which airports are closest to the threat? Manzanillo is inside the Hurricane Watch; Puerto Vallarta sits just north of where it ends; Zihuatanejo is at the southern end of the Tropical Storm Warning.
- Are the airports closed? As of 11:30 CEST on October 16, no Trudy closure had been announced for PVR, ZLO or ZIH.
- Are there airline waivers? As of 11:30 CEST on October 16, we found no airline waiver issued for Trudy.
- What should I do? Check your airline's alerts, rebook early if you can, and watch the inbound aircraft for your flight home.
Where Trudy is now and what NHC expects
As of NHC's 3 a.m. CST advisory on Friday, October 16, Trudy had maximum sustained winds near 120 mph and was about 250 miles southwest of Acapulco and 355 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo (14.2°N, 102.4°W), moving northwest at about 6 mph. NHC says Trudy "rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane overnight" and expects more strengthening through Saturday, with its forecast peaking near 145 mph. On the forecast track, the center approaches the coast on Saturday and passes near it Saturday night into Sunday, then weakens later in the weekend and into early next week.
NHC shifted its track forecast slightly west in this advisory after Trudy wobbled west overnight, and its discussion says most models keep the center offshore. Its forecast positions put the center at 19.0°N 105.5°W early Sunday (local time) and 20.3°N 106.3°W around midday Sunday, which is offshore and to the west of Cabo Corrientes and Banderas Bay, the bay Puerto Vallarta sits on. NHC also warns that because the track runs parallel to the coast, small changes could make a big difference to how severe the impacts are. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 140 miles. Minimum central pressure was estimated at 956 mb. (Sources: NHC Advisory #12, NHC Discussion #12.)
Watches and warnings: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, and a Tropical Storm Warning from Manzanillo southward to Zihuatanejo (extended north from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo in Advisory #12). A Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area; a Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. NHC expects tropical storm conditions in the warning area by late Friday night or early Saturday, and says hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by late Saturday, with tropical storm conditions starting there on Saturday. It says additional watches or warnings will likely be required later on Friday.
Rain, surge and surf: NHC expects 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals around 12 inches, along and near the coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco through the weekend, with a risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Puerto Vallarta is in Jalisco and Manzanillo in Colima. Outer bands may bring 2 to 4 inches, isolated around 6 inches, to the Guerrero coast, where Zihuatanejo is. Storm surge could cause coastal flooding where winds blow onshore, with large and destructive waves, and swells will spread north over the next few days, bringing life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Second storm in a week: what Hurricane Simon did to these airports
Trudy follows Hurricane Simon, which shut both of these airports last weekend. According to Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), which runs both:
- Puerto Vallarta (PVR) closed at 18:00 local time on Saturday, October 10, under an official NOTAM (notice to airmen) from AFAC, Mexico's civil aviation agency (GAP notice). The closure was later extended to 08:00 on Tuesday, October 13 (GAP update). GAP then brought the reopening forward in two stages: the airport opened to official aircraft only from 14:30 on Monday, October 12, and to all operations, including commercial flights, from Tuesday, October 13 (GAP notice, PDF).
- Manzanillo (ZLO) closed at 18:00 local time on Saturday, October 10 (GAP notice) and resumed operations at 08:00 local time on Monday, October 12 (GAP notice).
Simon is now a tropical storm well to the northwest, south-southeast of the Baja California peninsula, according to NHC. The practical point is that airlines serving this coast are recovering their schedules for the second time in a week, which leaves less slack for rebooking.
Your weekend flight at PVR, ZLO and ZIH
The figures below are NHC's wind speed probabilities from Advisory #12: the chance that a place sees sustained winds of at least tropical-storm force (39 mph) during the next five days. (Source: NHC wind speed probabilities #12.)
Puerto Vallarta (PVR). Puerto Vallarta is not inside the Hurricane Watch, which ends at Cabo Corrientes, the southern point of Banderas Bay. NHC gives Puerto Vallarta a 43% chance of tropical-storm-force winds, 12% for winds of 58 mph or more, and 1% for hurricane-force winds, with the chance concentrated from Saturday afternoon through Sunday, local time. Jalisco is in NHC's heavy-rain zone. As of 11:30 CEST on October 16, GAP had not announced any closure or restriction at PVR for Trudy (GAP notices). Weekend flights on Saturday evening and Sunday are the ones most worth watching.
Manzanillo (ZLO). Manzanillo is inside the Hurricane Watch and at the northern end of the Tropical Storm Warning. NHC gives Manzanillo an 83% chance of tropical-storm-force winds, 44% for 58 mph or more, and 22% for hurricane-force winds, with the chance concentrated from early Saturday through Saturday night, local time. Colima is in the heavy-rain zone. As of 11:30 CEST on October 16, GAP had not announced any closure or restriction at ZLO for Trudy (GAP notices). Of the three airports, this is the one most likely to see Saturday flights disrupted.
Zihuatanejo (ZIH). Zihuatanejo is at the southern end of the Tropical Storm Warning, but NHC gives it only a 4% chance of tropical-storm-force winds. The bigger risks there are Trudy's outer rain bands over Guerrero and the dangerous surf. ZIH isn't run by GAP; as of 11:30 CEST on October 16, we found no Trudy closure notice for ZIH from its operator, OMA, or from AFAC.
Why an airport can shut without a direct hit
From the flight deck, the question isn't only "will the eye hit the airport?" Strong crosswinds and gusts, heavy rain that cuts visibility, and water on the runway can each stop flights well away from the center, and closures in Mexico are set by official NOTAMs, as GAP's Simon notices show. Even after the weather clears, the airport and runway have to be inspected before flights restart, and airlines then need aircraft and crews back in place.
Why a storm in Mexico can delay your flight home in the US
Airlines plan aircraft and crews in chains. If a plane can't get into Puerto Vallarta on Saturday, it also can't fly the return trip to Los Angeles, Dallas or Chicago, and the crew on board won't be where the next day's schedule expects them. Crew duty limits stop airlines from simply stretching the day. The result is that cancellations and delays often last after the storm passes, while aircraft and crews are moved back into position. We explain that recovery in detail in why hurricane flight delays last days.
The return-leg problem
If you're already in Puerto Vallarta, Manzanillo or Zihuatanejo with a flight home on October 17–19, your flight depends on an aircraft arriving first. Watch the inbound flight as well as your own, and pay attention to messages from your airline.
What to do if you're flying this weekend
- Check your airline's travel alerts page today and again tomorrow. Airlines often publish weather waivers before major storms. As of 11:30 CEST on October 16, we found no airline waiver issued for Hurricane Trudy covering PVR, ZLO or ZIH on the airline pages we checked; the most recent Puerto Vallarta waiver we found was Delta's for Hurricane Simon, covering travel on October 10–12 (Delta Simon advisory). Policies vary, so read your airline's terms rather than assuming what's covered.
- Make changes early. If your airline offers a free change, the earlier you rebook, the more seats are left.
- When flights resume, aim for the first departure of the day. Across US airports, 11.0% of flights scheduled before 8 AM arrived 15+ minutes late, against 28.7% of flights scheduled after 8 PM (BTS data, Jan 2023 to Dec 2025, as published in the DelayGuard FAQ and morning vs evening flight delays).
- Allow extra time for connections through your US hub on the way home.
- Follow official sources: NHC for the storm, GAP for Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo airport notices, and your airline for your flight.
Check your US departure airport
DelayGuard supports predictions for 80 US airports. It doesn't forecast flights at Mexican airports, but you can check how the US end of your trip looks: Los Angeles (LAX) · Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) · Phoenix (PHX) · Houston (IAH) · Denver (DEN) · Chicago O'Hare (ORD) · or run your flight through the free predictor, an ML model trained on BTS data (Jan 2023 to Dec 2025).
The bottom line
Trudy is a major hurricane forecast to pass near Mexico's Pacific resort coast Saturday night into Sunday, a week after Hurricane Simon closed Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo airports. Manzanillo is inside the Hurricane Watch, Puerto Vallarta is just north of it, and Zihuatanejo is at the edge of the Tropical Storm Warning. Follow NHC, GAP and your airline, make any changes early, and expect the return leg to be disrupted too.
Related posts
FAQ
Will Hurricane Trudy cancel flights to Puerto Vallarta?
That depends on the final track and on each airline. NHC's October 16 advisory forecasts Trudy to be a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to southwestern and west-central Mexico, passing near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. A Hurricane Watch runs from north of Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, which includes Manzanillo and ends just south of Puerto Vallarta, and a Tropical Storm Warning covers Manzanillo southward to Zihuatanejo. As of 11:30 CEST on October 16, no Trudy closure had been announced for Puerto Vallarta airport, so check your airline's travel alerts before you travel.
When will Hurricane Trudy reach Mexico?
NHC's 3 a.m. CST advisory on October 16 said the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by late Friday night or early Saturday, and hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by late Saturday.
Is Trudy the same storm that closed Puerto Vallarta airport last week?
No. That was Hurricane Simon. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, which runs the airport, said Puerto Vallarta closed at 18:00 local time on October 10 and reopened to all operations, including commercial flights, on October 13. Trudy is a separate hurricane approaching from the south.
Why might my flight home be delayed if the weather is fine where I am?
Aircraft and crews move in chains. If they're stuck where the storm is, the next flights in that chain are affected, even under clear skies.
How we know: storm details come from the US National Hurricane Center (Advisory #12, discussion and wind speed probabilities, October 16, 2026). Airport closure dates come from Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico notices. The delay statistics come from US Bureau of Transportation Statistics data, January 2023 to December 2025.
All articles | Flight delay prediction