Flight Delay Research

Check your odds: Will my flight be delayed? · Will my flight be cancelled?

Logan Runway 9-27 Closure: Why Boston Flights Are Delayed (October 2026): Boston Logan has had FAA ground stops and delay programs on several days this month, with one of its main runways closed for safety work. Here is why, how long it lasts, and which other US airports are short a runway this fall. (October 20, 2026, 8 min read)
Hurricane Trudy and Your Puerto Vallarta or Manzanillo Flight: What a Pilot Watches This Weekend: Hurricane Trudy is a Category 1 hurricane, and some strengthening remains possible today. It is still forecast to pass near Mexico's Pacific coast tonight into Sunday. What that means for flights at Puerto Vallarta, Manzanillo and Zihuatanejo. (October 16, 2026, 6 min read)
The Lingering Impact of Hurricanes on Flight Delays: Why Cancellations Continue After the Storm Passes: The skies may be clear and sunny, but your flight is still canceled. An airline pilot explains the operational hangover of hurricanes: why aircraft displacement, crew timeouts, and rerouted airspace cause flight disruptions to linger for days after landfall. (October 7, 2026, 9 min read)
How to Check a Flight's On-Time Record (and What the Numbers Mean): An on-time record is a rate over a sample window, not a property of a flight number. How to read one by airline, route and airport, using BTS data for January 2023 to December 2025. (October 3, 2026, 6 min read)
Thanksgiving 2026 flight delays: worst days and airports: The Sunday after Thanksgiving was the most delayed day of that week in 2023, 2024 and 2025. In 2026 that Sunday is November 29. Christmas Day was among the lightest days in the holiday window. (September 29, 2026, 10 min read)
SFO's Runway 1R Reopens September 29 — What Actually Changes for Your Flight: SFO gets its fourth runway back on September 29, ahead of schedule. Clear-weather arrivals rise to roughly 45-48 an hour — better than the summer, still short of the old 54, and still undone by fog. (September 23, 2026, 8 min read)
What the Alaska-Hawaiian Merger Means for Flight Delays in 2026 (And Which Routes to Watch): Alaska's $1.9B Hawaiian acquisition is now three milestones deep — single Operating Certificate, unified loyalty, shared reservation system. The operational story for Hawaii routes is more complicated than the loyalty story. (May 6, 2026, 7 min read)
SFO's Runway Capacity Cut — What It Means for Your 2026 Flight: The FAA's parallel-approach restriction was never just a construction side effect. Arrivals fell from 54 per hour to 36 in March, recovered to 42 in August, and SFO expected 45–48 after Runway 1R reopened on September 29 — still short of 54. (April 28, 2026, 7 min read)
Which US Airlines Are Most Delayed in 2026? | DelayGuard: A commercial pilot's read on the 2026 on-time data so far: Alaska leads, Delta's January slipped, JetBlue and Frontier still trail. What it means for how you book. (May 8, 2026, 7 min read)
Worst US Airports for Flight Delays: 2026 Rankings: Fort Lauderdale (27.3%), Miami (27.0%) and Dallas/Fort Worth (26.7%) top the BTS delay table for January 2023 to December 2025. Newark ranks 8th, JFK 12th and LaGuardia 17th. (January 22, 2026, 8 min read)
Morning vs. Evening Flights: Which Has Fewer Delays? The Data Explains: 11.0% of flights scheduled before 8 AM arrived 15+ minutes late, against 28.7% after 8 PM, in BTS data for January 2023 to December 2025. The pattern is explained by schedule propagation. (February 5, 2026, 6 min read)
Hawaiian Airlines Is Now Alaska Airlines: What It Means for Travelers: On April 22, 2026, the HA flight code disappeared from booking systems after 95 years. Every Hawaiian Airlines flight is now Alaska Airlines (AS). Here's what that means for travelers and how it affects our delay predictions. (April 24, 2026, 6 min read)
DFW Airport Chaos: What Actually Happened April 27–29, 2026: Over three days, Dallas/Fort Worth went from widespread system stress to 56 and counting cancellations representing 57.9% of every cancelled US flight in a single day. Here’s exactly what happened and what to do before your next DFW flight. (April 29, 2026, 5 min read)
Spirit Airlines Has Shut Down — What It Means for Your Fares, Your Flights, and US Aviation: Spirit Airlines stopped flying on May 2, 2026 — the first major US airline shutdown since Midway after 9/11. Here's what it means for fares, delays, and your ticket. (May 2, 2026, 9 min read)
SpaceX Launch Scrub Estimates: How DelayGuard Scores a Countdown: The launch page lists missions SpaceX publishes and shows a rough scrub-chance estimate. The percentage is not a forecast and has not been tested against past scrubs. (May 4, 2026, 6 min read)
How Pilots Predict Flight Delays (And How You Can Too): As a commercial airline pilot, I can usually tell hours before passengers know whether a flight is at risk of delay. Here's the data I check — and how you can access the same early-warning signal. (June 28, 2026, 7 min read)
The New York Air Traffic Crisis: Why JFK, LGA, and EWR Keep Melting Down: New York's three major airports are in the grip of an ATC staffing crisis that won't resolve until 2027 at the earliest. Here's what's really happening — and how to protect your travel plans. (August 3, 2026, 8 min read)
The Worst Time to Fly Out of Atlanta: A Data-Backed Guide: Atlanta is the world's busiest airport, and its long-run BTS delay rate (21.0%) is close to the national average (21.2%). Its bad days are severe. This data-backed guide covers the worst times to fly ATL, what causes the disruptions, and how to build a smarter itinerary. (August 8, 2026, 7 min read)
The SFO Runway Crisis: Six Months In — Is It Getting Better or Worse?: San Francisco Airport's runway closure was supposed to cause minor disruption. The reality was significantly worse. Runway 1R reopened on 29 September, and the FAA has relaxed its approach restriction twice — but SFO is not returning to 54 arrivals per hour. (August 13, 2026, 8 min read)
Is Travel Insurance Worth It for Flight Delays in 2026? A Pilot's Honest Take: Airlines now legally owe you automatic cash refunds for significant delays under DOT rules — but that doesn't make travel insurance obsolete. Here's the honest math on when it's worth buying and what it actually covers. (September 8, 2026, 7 min read)
EWR vs LGA vs JFK: Which New York Airport Has Fewer Delays? (2026 Data): LaGuardia has the fewest delays of the three New York airports (20.6% against 23.4% at Newark) but the most cancellations (2.67%). Here is how to read the numbers. (September 9, 2026, 8 min read)
US Airport On-Time Performance Ranked: Which Airports Delay the Most Flights? (2026): Fort Lauderdale delayed 27.3% of departing flights and Salt Lake City 16.7% in BTS data for January 2023 to December 2025. The full 22-airport ranking, with cancellation rates and time-of-day effects. (September 9, 2026, 7 min read)
Which Airline Cancels the Most Flights? (2024–2025 BTS Data): Frontier cancels 2× more flights than Delta. We ranked every major US airline by cancellation rate using 14 million BTS flights from 2024–2025. The gap between the best and worst is wider than most travelers realise. (September 17, 2026, 7 min read)
Newark Stays Capped Into 2027: What It Means for Your Flight: The FAA has extended Newark's limit of 36 arrivals and 36 departures an hour through October 30, 2027, because of controller staffing. Here is what that means for delays, and how to plan your EWR flight. (October 13, 2026, 11 min read)
Airline On-Time Performance: How 10 US Airlines Compare: Delta was the most punctual of the 10 major US airlines at 17.8% late. Frontier was the least punctual at 29.3%, and American Airlines came in at 25.0% (BTS, January 2023 to December 2025). (October 15, 2026, 8 min read)
Fly SFO, Oakland or San Jose? A Pilot's Bay Area Guide: San Jose departures arrived 15+ minutes late 15.8% of the time, Oakland 18.0%, and San Francisco 20.8% (BTS data, Jan 2023 to Dec 2025). After 8 PM, San Francisco is the lowest of the three. (October 18, 2026, 8 min read)