Predict Your Flight's Delay
and Cancellation Risk
Know your delay and cancellation risk before you book or pack. DelayGuard combines an ML model trained on BTS data — millions of flight records — with current weather, FAA advisories and live flight data, so you get a risk estimate while you can still change your plans.
3 free predictions per day · No account required · Results in under 3 seconds
1.33M
Unseen Test Flights
Oct–Dec 2025 (BTS)
2023–mid-2025
Training Data
3.95M domestic flights (BTS)
22
Airport delay guides
Ranked against each other
<3s
Prediction Time
Real-time, no waiting
What is AI flight delay prediction?
Flight delay prediction estimates how likely a flight is to be delayed or cancelled before it happens. It answers the question you have when you are choosing a flight, deciding on a connection or leaving for the airport: what are the odds this one goes wrong?
Live trackers and airline apps show what is happening to a flight right now: its status, gate and current delay. That matters once a problem exists. Prediction works earlier. It looks at how this airline, route, airport and departure time have performed in the past, then adjusts for current weather and FAA programs, so you can still choose a morning departure, allow a longer connection or buy insurance.
Before you fly: prediction
Estimates the odds from history and current conditions. Useful when booking, choosing a time of day, planning a connection or deciding on backup plans.
On the day: live tracking
Shows the current status of a booked flight. Use a live tracker or your airline's app alongside DelayGuard on the day of travel.
DelayGuard combines an interpretable rule engine with an ML model trained on 2023 to mid-2025 BTS data: 3.95 million US domestic flights. The model learns which combinations of airline, airport, route, day of week, season and departure hour have produced delays, and the rules adjust for current weather and FAA conditions.
Flight delay and cancellation calculator
DelayGuard works as a flight delay and cancellation calculator for a US domestic trip. Enter the route or the flight number and the departure time. The result shows a delay risk band: Low, Moderate, High, or Very High. When a historical cancellation rate is included, that rate appears on the same screen. Check it while you can still change the booking. The band is an estimate of delay risk for that flight.
Delay odds for a specific flight
About one US domestic flight in five arrives late. In BTS data for January 2023 to December 2025, 21.2% of flights arrived 15 or more minutes after schedule. Your own flight can be much better or worse than that, depending on the airline, the route, the time of day, the season and current weather and air traffic conditions.
Enter your flight above to get a free risk band (Low, Moderate, High or Very High). Premium and credits add the exact percentage and the full factor breakdown. To see how much the departure time matters on its own, read morning vs evening flight delays, or compare airline on-time rankings and airport delay rankings.
The national delay rate, and what moves it, is on will my flight be delayed. A cancellation is a separate question: see will my flight be cancelled.
See flight cancellations tomorrow for the major US hubs.
If you are planning a tight connection at ORD, ATL, DFW, DEN or CLT, see how often inbound flights at those hubs arrived late.
How to check your flight's delay risk
Four steps. Under a minute. Free.
Enter your route or flight number
Choose any of the 80 US airports the predictor covers, or type your flight number (e.g. AA807, DL1234). 22 of those airports also have a full delay guide. Then choose your departure date and time.
Receive your delay probability score
The AI model returns a delay probability score (0–100%) and a risk band: Low Risk, Moderate Risk, High Risk, or Very High Risk. Free users see the risk band; Premium users see the exact percentage.
Review the risk factor breakdown
Premium users see exactly which factors are driving the risk: weather forecast severity, airline on-time history on this route, airport congestion levels, time-of-day patterns, and cascade risk from late-arriving upstream aircraft.
Take informed action
For high-risk flights, consider an earlier departure, travel insurance, or set a real-time browser notification to monitor status changes. DelayGuard shows contextual recommendations based on your specific risk score.
How the flight delay predictor works
Enter a US domestic route or flight number. DelayGuard reads Bureau of Transportation Statistics history, live weather and FAA programs to predict flight delays for that departure, then shows a risk band. The band is an estimate, not a guarantee. Crew issues and last-minute air-traffic decisions are not fully knowable in advance.
The national picture for US domestic flights is on two short pages: Will my flight be delayed? explains the 21.2% delay rate, and Will my flight be cancelled? explains the 1.41% cancellation rate. How those rates become a score for one flight is on how it works.
What data powers the predictions?
Accurate predictions require layering multiple independent data signals. DelayGuard uses six:
BTS Flight Records
ML model trained on BTS data covering about 2.5 years of US domestic commercial flights — millions of historical delay outcomes.
Aviation Weather Forecasts
Aviation-grade weather forecasts including ceiling, visibility, precipitation, wind shear, and convective activity for origin and destination airports. Sourced from official aviation meteorology services.
FAA Advisories (NOTAMs & GDPs)
Real-time FAA NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions) data and Ground Delay Program advisories. GDPs are the clearest leading indicator of systemic airport delays.
Live Flight Tracking
AviationStack and FlightAware provide live departure status, cancelled/diverted flags, gate holds, and en-route positions — used for real-time cascade delay detection.
Airline Operations History
Carrier-specific on-time performance rates by route, season, day of week, and time of day. Some airlines and routes are historically much more reliable than others.
Airport Congestion Patterns
Historical delay patterns by airport, terminal, and gate type. Slot-controlled airports (JFK, LGA, DCA) have different delay profiles than less constrained hubs.
What actually causes flight delays?
BTS records a cause on delayed flights: late-arriving aircraft, the airline's own operations, the national airspace system, weather, and security.
The BTS extract behind these pages does not include those cause shares, so no percentage is shown. A prediction uses the airline's history on that route, cascade risk from the schedule, and live FAA and weather data.
Free vs. Premium predictions
Free
3 predictions per day · Risk band only
- Risk band only: Low, Moderate, High, or Very High
- Exact percentage is not included
- 3 predictions per day
- Up to 3 saved flights on a free account
Premium
Unlimited predictions · 7-day free trial
- Exact delay probability percentage
- Full risk factor breakdown with contribution bars
- Unlimited daily predictions
- Unlimited saved flights with real-time alerts
- PDF and CSV export of delay reports
- Ad-free experience
- Historical delay data and trends
How accurate is AI flight delay prediction?
The short answer: significantly better than a coin flip, not perfect. DelayGuard's v9 model uses only information available before departure, and it was tested on a later quarter of real US flights it never saw during training — so its results reflect how it performs in real use, not on data it has already memorised.
Accuracy varies by prediction horizon. Within 24–48 hours of departure, real-time FAA Ground Delay Program data and weather nowcasts improve accuracy substantially. At 7+ days out, the model relies more heavily on historical patterns, which are still informative but less precise.
What the model cannot predict: Black swan events (sudden runway closures, bird strikes, medical emergencies), last-minute crew scheduling failures, or unprecedented weather events outside historical patterns. These represent a minority of delays but are genuinely unpredictable. DelayGuard displays clear disclaimers and never advises travel decisions based solely on its scores.
Methodology transparency
DelayGuard publishes full methodology documentation including model architecture, training data description, feature engineering, and known limitations.
How cancellation risk is calculated
The cancellation rate shown on every DelayGuard prediction result is a statistical baseline derived from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on-time performance dataset, covering all US domestic commercial flights operated in 2024 and 2025 — approximately 14 million scheduled departures and 199,000 cancellations.
The rate is resolved at the most specific level available for your search. In order of preference: route × airline × departure month (e.g. Delta flights on ATL–BOS in September), then route × airline annual average, then route-only average, then airline-wide average. This means a September Delta ATL–BOS result uses that specific cell's historical data rather than a generic system-wide figure.
Cancellation rates vary significantly by airline, route, and season. Among major US carriers in 2024–2025, rates range from 0.84% (Southwest) to 2.05% (Frontier). Winter months and routes exposed to severe convective weather can run 2–3× the annual average for that route. The BTS data is refreshed annually as new full-year records become available.
0.84%
Southwest
Lowest major carrier
1.00%
Delta
1.68%
American
2.05%
Frontier
Highest major carrier
BTS 2024–2025 · US domestic flights · 14M scheduled departures
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between a flight tracker and a delay predictor?
A flight tracker shows what is happening to a flight right now: status, gate and current delay. A delay predictor estimates the odds of a delay or cancellation before it happens, from how the airline, route, airport and departure time have performed in the past plus current weather and FAA conditions. Use a predictor when booking and planning, and a live tracker or your airline's app on the day of travel.
Will my flight be delayed?
No one can know for certain, but you can check the odds. Across US domestic flights from January 2023 to December 2025, 21.2% arrived 15 or more minutes late, about one in five. Your own risk depends on the airline, route, time of day, season and current weather and air traffic conditions. Enter your flight in DelayGuard for a free risk band (Low, Moderate, High or Very High). Premium and credits show the exact percentage and the full factor breakdown.
How accurate is AI flight delay prediction?
Flight delays are inherently noisy, so DelayGuard focuses on honest risk estimates rather than a headline score. The ML model, trained on 2023 to mid-2025 BTS data (nearly 4 million flights), uses only information available before departure and was tested on a later quarter of flights it never saw. Predictions made within 48 hours of departure are more accurate as live weather and FAA ground-delay data become available.
How far in advance can you predict a flight delay?
Free users can check delay risk up to 7 days ahead. Premium users can look up to 1 year in advance, which is useful for planning trips around historically high-risk periods (summer thunderstorm season, major holidays). Accuracy degrades beyond 2 weeks as weather data becomes unavailable.
What causes most US domestic flight delays?
BTS records a cause on delayed flights, including late-arriving aircraft, the airline's own operations, the national airspace system, weather, and security. The BTS extract behind these pages does not include those cause shares, so no percentage is shown.
Is it better to fly in the morning to avoid delays?
Yes. In BTS data for January 2023 to December 2025, 11.0% of US domestic flights scheduled before 8 AM arrived 15 or more minutes late, against 28.7% of flights scheduled after 8 PM. The aircraft has spent the night at the airport, so an early departure has no late inbound flight to wait for.
Which airlines have the best on-time performance?
Based on BTS data, Alaska Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines consistently rank highest for on-time performance among major US carriers. Frontier and JetBlue show higher delay rates, particularly on congested routes. (Spirit Airlines historically shared this profile but ceased all operations on May 2, 2026.) Performance varies significantly by route and season.
Does weather always cause flight delays?
Weather is one cause BTS records on a delayed flight. The extract behind these pages does not include cause shares, so no weather percentage is shown. A prediction also uses the airline's history on that route and live FAA data.
Can I get compensation if my flight is delayed?
US domestic delays do not generally entitle passengers to cash compensation. Airlines must honor their published commitments for controllable disruptions, which may include meals or hotels. If your flight is canceled or significantly changed and you decline alternative travel, refund rights still apply. DelayGuard offers VisitorsCoverage and Insubuy insurance comparisons for planning ahead: check domestic-trip eligibility, trip-delay benefits and exclusions. Do not assume an already-known disruption is covered.
What is the difference between a delay and a cancellation?
A delay means your flight departs late but still operates. A cancellation means the flight doesn't operate at all. Cancellations are more likely during severe weather events. High Very High Risk scores on DelayGuard correlate with elevated cancellation probability, though the current model specifically predicts departure delays of 15+ minutes.
Which airline cancels the most flights?
Based on BTS data for 2024–2025 (14 million domestic flights), Frontier Airlines has the highest cancellation rate among major US carriers at 2.05%, followed by Spirit Airlines (1.74%) and American Airlines (1.68%). Delta Air Lines has the lowest cancellation rate of the major carriers at 1.00%, followed by Southwest at 0.84%. DelayGuard shows the historical cancellation rate for your specific route and airline on every prediction result.
What is a normal flight cancellation rate?
The US domestic average cancellation rate was approximately 1.4% in 2024–2025, based on BTS data covering 14 million scheduled flights. In practical terms, roughly 1 in 71 US domestic flights is cancelled. Rates vary significantly by airline (0.84%–2.05% for major carriers), route, season, and month. Winter months and periods with severe weather events can push cancellation rates 2–3× above the annual average.
How is cancellation risk different from delay risk?
Delay risk measures the probability your flight departs 15+ minutes late but still operates. Cancellation risk measures the historical probability the flight does not operate at all. DelayGuard's AI model predicts delay probability in real time; the cancellation rate shown on results is a historical baseline from BTS data, broken down by your specific airline, route, and departure month. The two risks are related — routes with high delay rates tend to have elevated cancellation rates during severe weather — but they are calculated differently.
Which routes have the highest cancellation rates?
Routes through congested northeastern hubs tend to have the highest cancellation rates. Based on BTS 2024–2025 data, routes like ORD–ATL and DFW–LAX see cancellation rates above 1.4%, partly driven by weather exposure and operational complexity. Routes between major sunny-weather airports (e.g. LAX–BOS, PHX–LAS) tend to have lower cancellation rates, often below 0.5%. DelayGuard displays the historical cancellation rate for your specific origin–destination pair and airline on every prediction.
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