See your delay risk before you book or pack.
Get a free risk band for any US domestic flight — Low, Moderate, High, or Very High. A free result includes a blurred preview of the comparison and the history section. A credit or Premium shows the exact percentage, the full breakdown and route chart.
Hawaiian flights now use Alaska (AS) flight numbers. Spirit ceased on May 2, 2026, and is not listed.
Try a popular route:
ML model trained on 3.95M BTS flights — 2023 to mid-2025, nearly 4 million real flights. Tested on unseen flights. Plus live weather and FAA data.
Free tools & data
Free US domestic delay tools and data studies.
- Flight delays todayFAA status now, tomorrow's DelayGuard risk, and this month's historical delay rate at 39 US airports.
- Layover checkerChance a US inbound arrival is 45, 60 or 90+ minutes late, by airport and hour.
- ATC delays by airportShare of departures with a BTS airspace (NAS) delay at 39 US airports. NAS covers weather, volume and air traffic control, not ATC alone.
- 2025 shutdown delaysHow the 2025 shutdown moved delay and cancellation rates by airport.
- Winter cancellationsWhich airports cancel the most from December through February.
Will my flight be delayed?
It might. In Bureau of Transportation Statistics data for January 2023 to December 2025, 21.2% of US domestic flights arrived 15 or more minutes late.
Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from that delay rate.
DelayGuard turns that history, plus live weather and FAA programs, into a delay chance for the flight you enter.
The full answer is on Will my flight be delayed?
21.2%
Industry avg delay rate
80
Airports with predictions
8
Airlines you can select
Free
3 predictions/day
Delay rate: BTS, Jan 2023 to Dec 2025, arrived 15+ minutes late. Airports and airlines are coverage, not live traffic. 80 airports can be scored. 22 of them have a delay guide and are ranked together. Tomorrow's forecast samples 21 hubs. 8 airlines can be selected. The model scores 14 carriers with training rows, including regional airlines. Spirit is excluded. Hawaiian flights are selected as Alaska.
Explore flight delay insights
Airport and route data, plus how the predictor works — so you can fly smarter.
Matt van Arnhem
Founder, DelayGuard · Airline Pilot · Amsterdam
“After 5,000+ hours in the cockpit watching weather systems build and ATC programs stack up, I realized the patterns behind delays are real and predictable. That’s why I built DelayGuard.”
How DelayGuard works
BTS Historical Data
ML model trained on 2023 to mid-2025 BTS data (millions of US domestic flights).
AI Delay Model
Hybrid rule engine plus an ML model trained on BTS data — live NOAA aviation weather and FAA ground delay programs in the rule engine, plus pre-departure signals in the ML model: route patterns by hour, weekday and month, NAS/ATC risk, slot-controlled airports, hub dynamics, and historical airline, weather and air-traffic delay causes.
Instant Predictions
Get your delay probability in under a second with a clear breakdown of the top risk factors.
Check your odds: Will my flight be delayed? · Will my flight be cancelled?
See flight cancellations tomorrow for the major US hubs.
Simple, honest pricing
Free predictions show the risk band only. The exact percentage, the full breakdown and route chart come with a credit or with Premium. On a free result, the route and airline comparison and the history section are a blurred preview. A credit opens the exact percentage, the full breakdown and route chart, and the route and airline comparison on that prediction.
Free
$0/forever
- 3 predictions a day
- Risk band only: Low, Moderate, High, or Very High
- Exact percentage is not included
- Blurred preview of the comparison and the history section
- Monday email shows the risk band, plus a line that Premium shows the exact %
- Any airport with predictions, and any airline you can select
Credits
$1.99 for 10
Pay as you go · never expire
- Each credit is one prediction with the exact delay probability %, the full breakdown and route chart on that lookup
- Another credit unlocks one same-day alternatives list when the flight is High risk or worse, or one trip PDF
- 10 predictions for $1.99, 50 for $6.99, or 100 for $11.99Premium is $4.99 a month, unlimited
- On a free result, the route and airline comparison and the history section are a blurred preview. A credit opens the exact percentage, the full breakdown and route chart, and the route and airline comparison on that prediction.
- This route in this month over the past 3 years (BTS) is included on that prediction
- Does not include unlimited predictions, prediction history or history CSV export
Premium
$4.99/mo
7-day free trial · then $4.99/mo
- ✓Unlimited predictions
- ✓Exact percentage and full risk breakdown on every prediction
- ✓Same-day alternatives list, included
- ✓History CSV export and a trip PDF, included
- ✓This route in this month over the past 3 years (BTS), a reminder email the day before a saved flight, and an ad-free page
- ✓Monday outlook shows the exact %
- ✓7-day free trial on the monthly plan
Unlimited predictions. Exact delay percentages.
Upgrade for unlimited daily predictions, the exact percentage, a full risk breakdown, history CSV export and a trip PDF, and an ad-free page. Same-day lower-risk alternatives are included. Signed-in accounts get a reminder email the day before each saved flight. A credit unlocks one same-day alternatives list when the flight is High risk or worse, or one trip PDF.
7-day free trial · then $4.99/mo · cancel anytime
Just need a few predictions? Credit packs from $1.99 — no subscription.Frequently asked questions
How does DelayGuard predict flight delays?
DelayGuard combines an ML model trained on 2023 to mid-2025 BTS data (millions of flight records) with real-time data from weather services, live FAA advisories, and flight tracking APIs. The result is a delay probability score (0–100%) specific to your route, airline, departure hour, and date.
How accurate is AI flight delay prediction?
No model can foresee every crew issue, last-minute ATC decision or pop-up storm, so DelayGuard is built to be honest about risk. The v9 model uses only information available before departure and was tested on a later quarter of real US flights it never saw during training. Closer to departure, live weather and FAA advisories also feed into the score.
Is DelayGuard free to use?
Yes. A free prediction shows the risk band only: Low, Moderate, High, or Very High. Free accounts get 3 predictions per day. The exact delay probability % is paid, with a credit or with Premium ($4.99/month or $39/year). On a free result, the route and airline comparison and the history section are a blurred preview. A credit opens the exact percentage, the full breakdown and route chart, and the route and airline comparison on that prediction. Premium includes the full risk breakdown, plus unlimited predictions, history CSV export and a trip PDF, and an ad-free experience. Another credit unlocks one same-day alternatives list when the flight is High risk or worse, or one trip PDF. Premium includes both. Every signed-in account gets a reminder email the day before each saved flight. The Monday email for readers who are not on Premium shows the risk band and a line that Premium shows the exact %. The model is trained on nearly 4 million real US domestic flights (2023 to mid-2025 BTS data).
Which airlines and airports does DelayGuard cover?
DelayGuard scores flights at 80 US airports. 22 of those have a full delay guide and are ranked against each other. Tomorrow's hub forecast covers 21 of the guide airports. You can select 8 airlines: American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Alaska Airlines, Frontier Airlines, Allegiant Air. The delay model also scores regional carriers, 14 carriers in all with training rows, not counting Spirit. Hawaiian flights now operate as Alaska, and Spirit ceased on May 2, 2026. International routes are planned for a future update.
What causes most US domestic flight delays?
BTS records a cause on delayed flights, including late-arriving aircraft, the airline's own operations, the national airspace system, weather, and security. The BTS extract behind these pages does not include those cause shares, so no percentage is shown.
Is it better to fly in the morning to avoid delays?
Generally yes. In BTS data for January 2023 to December 2025, 11.0% of flights scheduled before 8 AM arrived 15 or more minutes late, against 28.7% of flights scheduled after 8 PM. The aircraft has spent the night at the airport, so an early departure has no late inbound flight to wait for.
Can DelayGuard predict SpaceX launch scrubs?
The launch page estimates a scrub chance for launches listed on spacex.com. The percentage is a model estimate from weather rules and fixed vehicle and site factors, and it has not been tested against past scrubs. It is not a forecast of airline delays. Visit delayguard.ai/launch-predictor.