Is my flight going to be delayed?
It might. In Bureau of Transportation Statistics data for January 2023 to December 2025, 21.2% of US domestic flights arrived 15 or more minutes late. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded. DelayGuard turns that history, plus live weather and FAA programs, into a delay chance for the flight you enter. The score is an estimate, not a guarantee, because crew issues, last-minute air-traffic decisions and pop-up storms are not fully knowable.
What counts as a delayed flight?
A flight that arrived 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival, the BTS and DOT on-time standard. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the delay rate. The 21.2% figure uses that definition for January 2023 to December 2025.
What time of day should I fly to avoid delays?
Earlier. In BTS data for January 2023 to December 2025, 11.0% of flights scheduled before 8 AM arrived 15 or more minutes late, against 28.7% after 8 PM. An early flight has not inherited the day's late-arriving aircraft.
Which airline is delayed least often?
In DelayGuard's BTS airline table for January 2023 to December 2025, Delta Air Lines was lowest at 17.8% of flights arriving 15 or more minutes late. Frontier Airlines was highest at 29.3%. Spirit Airlines ceased operations on May 2, 2026.
Which month has the most delays?
July, at 31.2% of flights arriving 15 or more minutes late across the airports in DelayGuard's BTS tables (January 2023 to December 2025). November was lowest at 16.9%.
Will weather or rain delay my flight?
It can. Thunderstorms, wind, icing, turbulence and low visibility are in the live aviation weather DelayGuard reads closer to departure. The BTS extract behind these pages records weather as a delay cause, but it does not include cause shares, so no weather percentage is shown. What the tables do show is timing: 11.0% of flights scheduled before 8 AM arrived 15 or more minutes late, against 28.7% after 8 PM, and July was the highest month at 31.2% (BTS, January 2023 to December 2025, airports in DelayGuard's tables). Rain by itself is not a separate rate in this data, so no rain-delay percentage is shown. A light shower is a different problem from a thunderstorm, a low ceiling or strong wind, which are the conditions in that live weather. If rain is forecast at your airports, run the predictor on the day you fly, when the forecast is in the score, and check the airline's own flight status before you leave.
What happens if a US airline cancels my flight instead?
After a US airline cancellation, you can decline the alternative flight and get an automatic cash refund of the unused ticket. Meals and hotels are voluntary airline commitments listed on the US Department of Transportation's customer service dashboard, not a requirement under a compensation law.