See your delay risk before you book or pack.
Get a free risk band for any US domestic flight — Low, Moderate, High, or Very High. Premium shows the exact percentage.
Try a popular route:
ML model trained on 3.95M BTS flights — 2023 to mid-2025, nearly 4 million real flights. Tested on unseen flights. Plus live weather and FAA data.
Will my flight be delayed?
It might. In Bureau of Transportation Statistics data for January 2023 to December 2025, 21.2% of US domestic flights arrived 15 or more minutes late.
Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from that delay rate.
DelayGuard turns that history, plus live weather and FAA programs, into a delay chance for the flight you enter.
The full answer is on Will my flight be delayed?
21.2%
Industry avg delay rate
80
Major US airports tracked
14
US airlines covered
Free
3 predictions/day
Delay rate: BTS, Jan 2023 to Dec 2025, arrived 15+ minutes late. Airports and airlines are coverage, not live traffic.
Explore flight delay insights
Airport and route data, plus how the predictor works — so you can fly smarter.
Matt van Arnhem
Founder, DelayGuard · Airline Pilot · Amsterdam
“After 5,000+ hours in the cockpit watching weather systems build and ATC programs stack up, I realized the patterns behind delays are real and predictable. That’s why I built DelayGuard.”
How DelayGuard works
BTS Historical Data
ML model trained on 2023 to mid-2025 BTS data (millions of US domestic flights).
AI Delay Model
Hybrid rule engine plus an ML model trained on BTS data — live NOAA aviation weather and FAA ground delay programs in the rule engine, plus pre-departure signals in the ML model: route patterns by hour, weekday and month, NAS/ATC risk, slot-controlled airports, hub dynamics, and historical airline, weather and air-traffic delay causes.
Instant Predictions
Get your delay probability in under a second with a clear breakdown of the top risk factors.
Check your odds: Will my flight be delayed? · Will my flight be cancelled?
See flight cancellations tomorrow for the major US hubs.
Simple, honest pricing
Free
$0/forever
- ✓3 predictions per day
- ✓Delay risk band (Low / Moderate / High / Very High)
- ✓All US routes & airlines
- ×Route history & trends
- ×Email delay alerts
- ×Unlimited predictions
Credits
$1.99 for 10
Pay as you go · never expire
- ✓10 predictions — $1.99
- ✓50 predictions — $6.99Best value
- ✓100 predictions — $11.99
- ✓Exact probability %
- ✓Full risk breakdown
Premium
$4.99/mo
7-day trial for first-time subscribers · then $4.99/mo
- ✓Unlimited predictions
- ✓Exact delay probability %
- ✓Full risk factor breakdown
- ✓Route history & trends
- ✓Email delay alerts
- ✓Ad-free experience
Unlimited predictions. Real-time alerts.
Upgrade to get unlimited daily predictions, real-time browser push notifications when your flight status changes, an ad-free experience, detailed PDF reports, and historical data exports.
7-day trial for first-time subscribers · then $4.99/mo · cancel anytime
Just need a few predictions? Credit packs from $1.99 — no subscription.Frequently asked questions
How does DelayGuard predict flight delays?
DelayGuard combines an ML model trained on 2023 to mid-2025 BTS data (millions of flight records) with real-time data from weather services, live FAA advisories, and flight tracking APIs. The result is a delay probability score (0–100%) specific to your route, airline, departure hour, and date.
How accurate is AI flight delay prediction?
No model can foresee every crew issue, last-minute ATC decision or pop-up storm, so DelayGuard is built to be honest about risk. The v9 model uses only information available before departure and was tested on a later quarter of real US flights it never saw during training. Closer to departure, live weather and FAA advisories also feed into the score.
Is DelayGuard free to use?
Yes — free accounts get 3 predictions per day with risk bands (Low / Moderate / High / Very High Risk) shown. The ML model behind every prediction is trained on nearly 4 million real US domestic flights (2023 to mid-2025 BTS data). Upgrading to Premium ($4.99/month or $39/year) unlocks unlimited predictions, exact probability percentages, full risk factor breakdown, saved flights with alerts, PDF/CSV export, and an ad-free experience.
Which airlines and airports does DelayGuard cover?
DelayGuard currently covers all major US domestic airlines including American, Delta, United, Southwest, JetBlue, Alaska, Frontier, Allegiant, and more — operating across 80 US airports supported for predictions, with full delay guides for 22 major hubs. Spirit Airlines (NK) ceased all operations on May 2, 2026 and is no longer covered for active predictions. International routes are planned for a future update.
What causes most US domestic flight delays?
BTS records a cause on delayed flights, including late-arriving aircraft, the airline's own operations, the national airspace system, weather, and security. The BTS extract behind these pages does not include those cause shares, so no percentage is shown.
Is it better to fly in the morning to avoid delays?
Generally yes. In BTS data for January 2023 to December 2025, 11.0% of flights scheduled before 8 AM arrived 15 or more minutes late, against 28.7% of flights scheduled after 8 PM. The aircraft has spent the night at the airport, so an early departure has no late inbound flight to wait for.
Can DelayGuard predict SpaceX launch scrubs?
Yes — DelayGuard's Launch Predictor estimates scrub probability for upcoming SpaceX launches using live NOAA weather data, NASA's official Launch Commit Criteria, and site-specific historical scrub rates. Only launches verified on spacex.com are listed. Visit delayguard.ai/launch-predictor to check the next mission.