Seattle to Phoenix Flight Delays
Sample size: 21,373 SEA–PHX flights, January 2023 to December 2025 (BTS). 20.81% of Seattle to Phoenix flights arrived at least 15 minutes late. That is 3.4 points better than the 24.2% median for those routes, making this one of the steadier pairings in the network. Departure time moves the odds more than anything else on this route: 05:00 departures run 7.99% late against 36% for 21:00. Tuesday is the calmest day at 17.39%, Friday the worst at 23.18%. Cancellations (2024 to 2025) peak in January at 3.77% of scheduled flights and bottom out in May at 0%. Last updated: 2026-10-01.
These figures are historical US domestic rates, not a forecast for one departure. Use the AI delay predictor before you book.
SEA airport delay guide · PHX airport delay guide · Predict a SEA to PHX flight
Best time to fly SEA to PHX
The best time to fly SEA to PHX is the 5 AM departure and fly on a Tuesday, not a Friday (17.39% against 23.18%): 7.99% of 5 AM flights arrived 15+ minutes late, against 36% at 9 PM.
Lowest observed delay rates depart 05:00–07:00. The highest sit at 18:00, 20:00–21:00. Only departure hours with at least 100 recorded flights are listed, so sparse hours are blank rather than estimated.
| Departure hour | Delayed 15+ min | Flights observed |
|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | 7.99% | 926 |
| 06:00 | 8.72% | 1,456 |
| 07:00 | 10.51% | 2,094 |
| 08:00 | 20.34% | 639 |
| 09:00 | 16.66% | 1,843 |
| 10:00 | 17% | 653 |
| 11:00 | 23.28% | 2,942 |
| 12:00 | 27.37% | 486 |
| 13:00 | 24.69% | 1,114 |
| 14:00 | 21.84% | 861 |
| 15:00 | 23.09% | 2,191 |
| 16:00 | 25.32% | 770 |
| 17:00 | 24.85% | 1,827 |
| 18:00 | 28.94% | 995 |
| 19:00 | 25.59% | 1,239 |
| 20:00 | 30.48% | 771 |
| 21:00 | 36% | 550 |
SEA to PHX flight time and distance
Scheduled gate-to-gate time from SEA to PHX is a median 2 h 54 min. Flights actually took a median 2 h 49 min gate to gate, including 2 h 22 min in the air. 1.6% ran 30 or more minutes over schedule and 65.3% arrived sooner than scheduled (BTS data, January 2023 to December 2025).
SEA to PHX is 1,107 miles (BTS data).
| Airline | Scheduled (median) | Actual (median) | In the air (median) | 30+ min over schedule | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 2 h 52 min | 2 h 49 min | 2 h 22 min | 1.9% | 8,839 |
| Delta Air Lines | 2 h 55 min | 2 h 48 min | 2 h 20 min | 1.5% | 5,263 |
| Southwest Airlines | 2 h 50 min | 2 h 44 min | 2 h 21 min | 0.8% | 2,884 |
| SkyWest Airlines | 3 h 3 min | 2 h 57 min | 2 h 26 min | 2.4% | 1,604 |
| American Airlines | 2 h 52 min | 2 h 47 min | 2 h 23 min | 1.2% | 1,080 |
| Envoy Air | 3 h 2 min | 2 h 52 min | 2 h 25 min | 0.4% | 902 |
| Frontier Airlines | 3 h | 2 h 53 min | 2 h 21 min | 2.2% | 801 |
How late, and why
When a SEA to PHX flight was late (15+ minutes), it arrived an average of 54 minutes late (median 32). 4.5% of all completed flights arrived an hour or more late (BTS data, 2023 to 2025).
Of the delay minutes on late SEA to PHX flights, 47.1% were caused by the airline (crew, maintenance, ground handling), 32.1% by a late incoming aircraft, 19.2% by the air-traffic system (volume, non-extreme weather, airport operations), 1.3% by extreme weather and 0.2% by security (BTS data, 2023 to 2025).
| Cause | Share of delay minutes |
|---|---|
| airline | 47.1% |
| late incoming aircraft | 32.1% |
| air-traffic system | 19.2% |
| extreme weather | 1.3% |
| security | 0.2% |
BTS assigns causes to delay minutes on flights that arrived 15+ minutes late. "Air-traffic system" includes non-extreme weather that slows traffic.
SEA to PHX delays by day of week
| Day | Delayed 15+ min | Flights observed |
|---|---|---|
| Mon | 22.53% | 3,160 |
| Tue | 17.39% | 2,950 |
| Wed | 18.57% | 2,956 |
| Thu | 22.64% | 3,114 |
| Fri | 23.18% | 3,137 |
| Sat | 19.16% | 2,939 |
| Sun | 21.75% | 3,117 |
Month-by-month cancellation pattern
Share of scheduled SEA–PHX flights cancelled in each month, from BTS 2024–2025 on-time reporting. These are cancellations, not delays. Delay figures on this page cover January 2023 to December 2025.
| Month | Cancelled | Flights scheduled |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 3.77% | 1,140 |
| Feb | 0.61% | 1,146 |
| Mar | 0.22% | 1,354 |
| Apr | 0.08% | 1,297 |
| May | 0% | 1,257 |
| Jun | 0.17% | 1,211 |
| Jul | 0.97% | 1,234 |
| Aug | 0.43% | 1,173 |
| Sep | 0.36% | 1,114 |
| Oct | 0.33% | 1,197 |
| Nov | 0.94% | 1,175 |
| Dec | 0.32% | 1,237 |
Airlines on SEA to PHX: delays and cancellations
Alaska Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, SkyWest Airlines, Envoy Air and Frontier Airlines fly this route today. Only carriers with at least 200 scheduled flights on the pairing are listed. Delay rates cover January 2023 to December 2025; cancellation rates cover 2024 to 2025.
| Airline | Share of flights | Delayed 15+ min | Cancelled | Flights scheduled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 40% | 24.34% | 1.16% | 5,873 |
| Delta Air Lines | 24% | 14.57% | 0.34% | 3,521 |
| Southwest Airlines | 14% | 24.76% | 0.29% | 2,048 |
| SkyWest Airlines | 11% | 16.33% | 0.13% | 1,544 |
| Envoy Air | 6% | 17.29% | 0% | 846 |
| Frontier Airlines | 4% | 28.96% | 1.38% | 578 |
Related pages
- SEA delays: rate, worst hours and live risk
- PHX delays: rate, worst hours and live risk
- US airline cancellation rates
- Thanksgiving and Christmas 2026 flight delay guide
- Predict a SEA to PHX flight
Check your odds: Will my flight be delayed? · Will my flight be cancelled?
SEA vs PHX: airport conditions
Both ends of a route shape its delay profile. These are DelayGuard's operational scores for Seattle and Phoenix.
| Measure | SEA (Seattle) | PHX (Phoenix) |
|---|---|---|
| Congestion | high | moderate |
| Weather risk | moderate | low |
| NAS vulnerability | moderate | low |
| Average taxi-out | 14 min | 13 min |
| Runways | 3 | 3 |
SEA to PHX questions
- How long is the flight from Seattle to Phoenix?
- Scheduled gate-to-gate time from SEA to PHX is a median 2 h 54 min, and flights actually took a median 2 h 49 min including 2 h 22 min in the air. 1.6% ran 30+ minutes over schedule (BTS data, January 2023 to December 2025).
- How often do SEA to PHX flights get delayed?
- Across 21,373 recorded SEA–PHX departures, January 2023 to December 2025 (BTS), 20.81% arrived at least 15 minutes late. Departure time matters most: 5:00 departures run 7.99% late against 36% for 21:00. Actual delay frequency varies by airline, time of day, and season.
- What is the best time of year to fly SEA to PHX?
- Both Seattle and Phoenix share the same primary risk window: November–February (coastal fog) with generally low risk year-round. Plan around those periods for the lowest delay probability on this route.
- Which airline is most reliable on SEA to PHX?
- On SEA→PHX, Delta Air Lines has the lowest measured delay rate at 14.57% of 5,263 flights, and Frontier Airlines the highest at 28.96% (BTS, January 2023 to December 2025). Envoy Air cancels the fewest at 0% (2024 to 2025). These are route-specific figures, not airline-wide averages.
- How late are SEA to PHX flights when they are delayed?
- When a SEA to PHX flight was late (15+ minutes), it arrived an average of 54 minutes late (median 32). 4.5% of all completed flights arrived an hour or more late (BTS data, 2023 to 2025).
- How accurate is DelayGuard's delay prediction for this route?
- DelayGuard's delay risk score comes from an ML model trained on BTS data (3.95 million US domestic flights, 2023 to mid-2025), with live weather data (within 5 days of departure) and FAA NAS advisories (within 6 hours) — a likelihood of delay, not a guarantee.
Delay figures reflect arrivals 15 or more minutes late in BTS on-time reporting. Cancellation figures are separate and count flights that never operated. Hours, days and months with fewer than 100 recorded flights are omitted rather than estimated.