Orlando to San Francisco Flight Delays
Sample size: 3,794 MCO–SFO flights, January 2023 to December 2025 (BTS). 25.46% of Orlando to San Francisco flights arrived at least 15 minutes late. That tracks the 24.2% median for the major US domestic routes DelayGuard covers almost exactly. Departure time moves the odds more than anything else on this route: 06:00 departures run 9.58% late against 50.52% for 20:00. Tuesday is the calmest day at 20.65%, Sunday the worst at 30.49%. Cancellations (2024 to 2025) peak in January at 12.67% of scheduled flights and bottom out in February at 0%. Last updated: 2026-10-01.
These figures are historical US domestic rates, not a forecast for one departure. Use the AI delay predictor before you book.
MCO airport delay guide · SFO airport delay guide · Predict a MCO to SFO flight
Best time to fly MCO to SFO
The best time to fly MCO to SFO is the 6 AM departure and fly on a Tuesday, not a Sunday (20.65% against 30.49%): 9.58% of 6 AM flights arrived 15+ minutes late, against 50.52% at 8 PM.
Lowest observed delay rates depart 06:00, 09:00, 17:00. The highest sit at 18:00–20:00. Only departure hours with at least 100 recorded flights are listed, so sparse hours are blank rather than estimated.
| Departure hour | Delayed 15+ min | Flights observed |
|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 9.58% | 355 |
| 08:00 | 14.76% | 806 |
| 09:00 | 13.19% | 235 |
| 17:00 | 14.16% | 113 |
| 18:00 | 32.45% | 1,094 |
| 19:00 | 32.07% | 817 |
| 20:00 | 50.52% | 194 |
MCO to SFO flight time and distance
Scheduled gate-to-gate time from MCO to SFO is a median 6 h 2 min. Flights actually took a median 5 h 52 min gate to gate, including 5 h 24 min in the air. 3.4% ran 30 or more minutes over schedule and 70.7% arrived sooner than scheduled (BTS data, January 2023 to December 2025).
MCO to SFO is 2,446 miles (BTS data).
| Airline | Scheduled (median) | Actual (median) | In the air (median) | 30+ min over schedule | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 6 h 8 min | 5 h 50 min | 5 h 24 min | 2.7% | 2,415 |
| Alaska Airlines | 6 h 2 min | 5 h 55 min | 5 h 26 min | 4.2% | 1,131 |
How late, and why
When a MCO to SFO flight was late (15+ minutes), it arrived an average of 70 minutes late (median 45). 9.7% of all completed flights arrived an hour or more late (BTS data, 2023 to 2025).
Of the delay minutes on late MCO to SFO flights, 41.7% were caused by a late incoming aircraft, 26.5% by the air-traffic system (volume, non-extreme weather, airport operations), 23.0% by the airline (crew, maintenance, ground handling), 8.3% by extreme weather and 0.4% by security (BTS data, 2023 to 2025).
| Cause | Share of delay minutes |
|---|---|
| late incoming aircraft | 41.7% |
| air-traffic system | 26.5% |
| airline | 23.0% |
| extreme weather | 8.3% |
| security | 0.4% |
BTS assigns causes to delay minutes on flights that arrived 15+ minutes late. "Air-traffic system" includes non-extreme weather that slows traffic.
MCO to SFO delays by day of week
| Day | Delayed 15+ min | Flights observed |
|---|---|---|
| Mon | 26.4% | 553 |
| Tue | 20.65% | 523 |
| Wed | 23.84% | 516 |
| Thu | 25.78% | 543 |
| Fri | 26.68% | 551 |
| Sat | 24.06% | 557 |
| Sun | 30.49% | 551 |
Month-by-month cancellation pattern
Share of scheduled MCO–SFO flights cancelled in each month, from BTS 2024–2025 on-time reporting. These are cancellations, not delays. Delay figures on this page cover January 2023 to December 2025.
| Month | Cancelled | Flights scheduled |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 12.67% | 221 |
| Feb | 0% | 190 |
| Mar | 0% | 212 |
| Apr | 0% | 233 |
| May | 0.43% | 232 |
| Jun | 0% | 206 |
| Jul | 2.76% | 217 |
| Aug | 1% | 200 |
| Sep | 0.57% | 175 |
| Oct | 4.08% | 196 |
| Nov | 0.4% | 251 |
| Dec | 0.34% | 290 |
Airlines on MCO to SFO: delays and cancellations
United Airlines and Alaska Airlines fly this route today. Only carriers with at least 200 scheduled flights on the pairing are listed. Delay rates cover January 2023 to December 2025; cancellation rates cover 2024 to 2025.
| Airline | Share of flights | Delayed 15+ min | Cancelled | Flights scheduled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 66% | 18.76% | 1.63% | 1,721 |
| Alaska Airlines | 29% | 35.81% | 2.35% | 766 |
Related pages
- MCO delays: rate, worst hours and live risk
- SFO delays: rate, worst hours and live risk
- US airline cancellation rates
- Thanksgiving and Christmas 2026 flight delay guide
- Predict a MCO to SFO flight
Check your odds: Will my flight be delayed? · Will my flight be cancelled?
MCO vs SFO: airport conditions
Both ends of a route shape its delay profile. These are DelayGuard's operational scores for Orlando and San Francisco.
| Measure | MCO (Orlando) | SFO (San Francisco) |
|---|---|---|
| Congestion | high | high |
| Weather risk | moderate | moderate |
| NAS vulnerability | moderate | high |
| Average taxi-out | 14 min | 15 min |
| Runways | 4 | 4 |
MCO to SFO questions
- How long is the flight from Orlando to San Francisco?
- Scheduled gate-to-gate time from MCO to SFO is a median 6 h 2 min, and flights actually took a median 5 h 52 min including 5 h 24 min in the air. 3.4% ran 30+ minutes over schedule (BTS data, January 2023 to December 2025).
- How often do MCO to SFO flights get delayed?
- Across 3,794 recorded MCO–SFO departures, January 2023 to December 2025 (BTS), 25.46% arrived at least 15 minutes late. Departure time matters most: 6:00 departures run 9.58% late against 50.52% for 20:00. Actual delay frequency varies by airline, time of day, and season.
- What is the best time of year to fly MCO to SFO?
- Orlando (FL) sees its highest delays during June–September (convective/thunderstorm season). San Francisco (CA) peaks during November–February (coastal fog) with generally low risk year-round. The dominant seasonal risk on this route sits at the origin (Orlando) — use the DelayGuard predictor to check conditions for your specific travel date.
- Which airline is most reliable on MCO to SFO?
- On MCO→SFO, United Airlines has the lowest measured delay rate at 18.76% of 2,415 flights, and Alaska Airlines the highest at 35.81% (BTS, January 2023 to December 2025). United Airlines cancels the fewest at 1.63% (2024 to 2025). These are route-specific figures, not airline-wide averages.
- How late are MCO to SFO flights when they are delayed?
- When a MCO to SFO flight was late (15+ minutes), it arrived an average of 70 minutes late (median 45). 9.7% of all completed flights arrived an hour or more late (BTS data, 2023 to 2025).
- How accurate is DelayGuard's delay prediction for this route?
- DelayGuard's delay risk score comes from an ML model trained on BTS data (3.95 million US domestic flights, 2023 to mid-2025), with live weather data (within 5 days of departure) and FAA NAS advisories (within 6 hours) — a likelihood of delay, not a guarantee.
Delay figures reflect arrivals 15 or more minutes late in BTS on-time reporting. Cancellation figures are separate and count flights that never operated. Hours, days and months with fewer than 100 recorded flights are omitted rather than estimated.